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Earth on brink of 'irreversible' collapse of global ecosystem, new SFU study warns

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“Humans now dominate Earth, changing it in ways that threaten its ability to sustain us and other species,” the report argues. “Planetary-scale critical transitions have occurred previously in the biosphere, albeit rarely, and . . . humans are now forcing another such transition, with the potential to transform Earth rapidly and irreversibly into a state unknown in human experience.

“Anticipating biological surprises on global as well as local scales, therefore, has become especially crucial to guiding the future of the global ecosystem and human societies.”

One of the key research areas behind the findings is paleontology, the study of prehistoric life. Evidence from earlier epochs suggests that previous major climatic changes – such as the 100,000-year long last ice age, and its demise in a single millennium – can be relatively swift, rather than gradual. 

As a scientist, is he worried?

“Does it worry me?!” he says, responding to VO's question as if it is all-too obvious. “Yes, it worries me a lot.

“One of the reasons it worries me a lot is that . . . paleontologists who study past shifts are very, very worried. They've seen changes occur, and they've been able to document how life has changed on earth.

"Then you lay all the other stuff on it – the social unrest, the land conversion, and so on. I've been really worried for a long time. The biggest worry, of course, is that you get all these things happening at once.”

The collaboration began with an invite from University of California-Berkeley paleontologist Anthony D. Barnosky, author of Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming.

“A lot of these people are famous names in their own field, but I never thought about them all speaking to this one question,” Mooers said. “There's no other paper that has these big names in paleontology, in theoretical ecology, in food web theory, in applied mathematics.

“It's not the lonely scientist-on-top entrepreneur model.”

The scientists cobbled together some staggering data in their review for Nature journal:

  •  The last “state change” happened 12,000 years ago, at the end of the Ice Age – a 100,000-year era which came to an abrupt end in only one per cent of that time.
  •  Humans have already converted 43 per cent of the planet for our use – through farming, industry and cities.
  •  Depending on human population in 40 years, we will have dominated between 50 and 70 per cent of the planet.
  • Simple systems only require a 58 per cent change before they reach their “tipping point.”

The findings come a month after the WWF's 2012 annual Living Planet Report, released in May, which found that the Earth has lost nearly a third of its biodiversity in the last 40 years – and double that in the tropics.

That report ranked Canadians' ecological footprint – each person's planetary impact – as the eighth-worst per capita in the world, and five times larger than the poorest nations'. And while the forecast is grim, it's not too late to act, Price said.

“People say, 'This is all so unfortunate for nature; I wish it weren't the case,'” he said. “But that's only part of the question. Undermining our own life support system is the other half.

“Do we want to risk that? Obviously, the answer is no. . . Is our response enough? No. But are we paralyzed by that? We may feel that way, but the choices are all ours.”

Price agreed with the Nature study's recommendation that more ecological monitoring is needed, alongside a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions and other environmental damage.

“We have to get off fossil fuels this generation,” he said.

“We all have to become more like accountants – how's that for an odd recommendation? We need to learn to value – monetarily and otherwise – the ecological system's services that we're undermining.”

But such an accounting seems far off – particularly in light of recent federal budget cuts to environmental monitoring and scientific research.

“It's a conundrum for all of us,” Price admits. “There appears to be less federal interest in the environment at a time when many are saying the situation is dire and needs to be addressed.

“Most of the progress in Canada and many places in the developed world have been at the state, provincial and municipal level. . . We are advocating the development of renewable energy sources, but we need a federal energy strategy that gets us from here to there.”

With the federal government unlikely to endorse the study's findings, or its policy recommendations, what are the implications?

"These are serious problems, and we need to do serious research," Mooers said. "The facts are clear. The best thing to come from this would be for governments to say, 'We need to study this and invest heavily in this question, to see if it's right or not. Can we get early warning signals?"

And if that doesn't happen?

"These feel like dark days, that is for certain," he says.

"Our department is committed to providing Canadians with a clean, safe and sustainable environment," said Environment Canada spokesperson Celine Tremblay, by email. "By remaining focused on our core mandate, we are confident that Environment Canada will remain a strong and effective organization in the years to come."

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