Alberta to cause three-quarters of Canada's climate failure
When it comes to fighting climate change, Alberta is "all hat, no cattle". They talk a good story but their weak climate policies allow their climate pollution to surge out of control, forcing climate failure on our nation.
The Alberta Government repeatedly highlights what it claims is its cutting edge carbon tax of $15 per tonne of carbon dioxide (tCO2). Just last week they paid $30,000 to run a half page ad in the New York Times lobbying for the Keystone XL pipeline, proclaiming:
"Alberta already has a $15 price on carbon."
Oddly, they left out the fact that only about 2% of Alberta's emissions pay their carbon tax.
I wonder if they sell oil the same way in Alberta? "We charge $60 per barrel but you can have 98% of the barrels for free."
And what about their other Pigovian taxes? Does Alberta collect tobacco taxes on only 2% of cigarettes? Do they collect alcohol taxes on just 2% booze?
Somehow I think not.
Here are the actual carbon numbers. Alberta's economy dumped 230 million tonnes of CO2 and collected $55 million in carbon taxes. That works out to 25 cents in carbon tax for each tonne of climate pollution emitted by Alberta's economy.
For perspective, 25 cents is one hundred times less than the damage climate pollution causes. That is according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) new report, "Energy Subsidy Reform", which estimates $25 in damages caused by every tonne of CO2 emissions.
As an economic signal to the Alberta economy, a mere 25 cents per tCO2 won't come anywhere close to solving the province's runaway climate problem.
Even the Harper Government agrees
Environment Canada predicts that Alberta's climate pollution will shrug off the province's weak climate policies and continue to increase dramatically. The latest "Emissions Trends 2012" report from Environment Canada has the dirty details. Take a look:
Clearly Alberta's climate policies are the least effective of any province in Canada at reining in climate pollution.
Alberta driving Canada's climate failure
Prime Minister Stephen Harper made an international pledge that Canada in 2020 will have reduced our climate pollution (to 83% of our 2005 level).
But Environment Canada predicts Alberta's spectacular climate failure will almost single-handedly force our nation to fail.
Below is a chart showing how close Environment Canada estimates current climate policies will bring each province -- and Canada -- to meeting the 2020 target (83% of 2005 emissions). Notice that Alberta is expected to cause three-quarters of our national failure:
Canada can't succeed until there is an effective policy on Alberta's climate pollution. It's that simple.
If you want the expert view of a Conservative Party insider:
"For Canada to achieve its national target … Alberta’s emissions have to come down further and faster than anywhere else … The challenge is clear: Canada cannot meet its GHG target without Alberta" -- David McLaughlin, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Mulroney; former chief of staff to Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty; CEO of the federal government's National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy.
Three hundred times less than needed to meet targets
So what is needed in Alberta?
The federal government's National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) did economic modelling on what would be needed to meet our 2020 climate pledge. As far as I know it is the only such government modelling that has been made available to the public.
NRTEE found that we would need either:
- an economy-wide carbon price of around $75 per tCO2. This is 300 times more than the 25 cents per tCO2 in Alberta's economy today.