Vancouver real estate market crash? Not so much...

For quite some time, many in the media have been predicting doom and gloom for Vancouver’s real estate market. The predictions are for a flood of new listings and falling demand; the reality, though, is it’s just not that bad.

The November 2012 REBGV statistics confirm that supply is contracting and Sellers are actually pulling out of the market, as illustrated by the large drop in the amount of properties listed for sale across the region.

A common assumption among more alarmist and less informed commentators is that recent softness in the Vancouver market is the beginning of a huge drop in prices. They contend that deeply indebted sellers will be forced to sell and buyers will not be able to buy. Many predict or allude to Canada experiencing a housing crash, not unlike what happened in the United States.

Thankfully the data is proving these theories wrong. Sellers in Vancouver are sitting on a significant amount of equity (value in the home after subtracting the mortgage balance). Many property owners who have been trying to sell have decided to take their properties off the market to wait for better market conditions. They are doing this because they can. This suggests we are not seeing panic in our current market.

Unemployment remains relatively low in Vancouver, interest rates are at all time lows, mortgages are easy to get, and the economy in BC is performing quite well.

This all means that buyers can and are able to buy property. Many are waiting to buy, but Vancouver is not in a situation where buyers cannot buy.

What all this means for buyers and sellers is that the Vancouver real estate market is softening gradually. Buyers are able to negotiate a far better deal than they could have 6-18 months ago. Sellers are able to get their property sold, though it may take longer and they may have to concede a bit more in negotiations than in previous markets.

Sorry doom and gloomers, the market is just not crashing.

Mike Stewart is a Vancouver realtor

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"pulling" off the market happens every year

"The November 2012 REBGV statistics confirm that supply is contracting and Sellers are actually pulling out of the market, as illustrated by the large drop in the amount of properties listed for sale across the region."

That happens every November. They relist in the new year, and given the market they will probably relist for less. Since this happens every year we can't conclude that the market is strong because of it. Maybe you should think for yourself instead of simply reprinting what the Real Estate Board ( association of home salesman ) say. You know, a sales man might have his own agenda.

"The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver now says consumers have begun pulling their homes off the market rather than settle for a lower prices in what is still the country’s most expensive market to buy a home."

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/fp/Vancouver+homeowners+pulling+properties+market+rather+than+settle+lower/7654205/story.html#ixzz2ENWMMXt1"

Disagree completely..

I've been watching real-estate prices in Downtown and ~Kits for the better part of 10 years.. a simple MLS search of the current inventory paints a dimmer picture then the November numbers reflect.

Condo's downtown are listed down significantly, and you can find properties in Vancouver listed closer to $1m that would have been listed in the $1.3m range 9-12 months ago.

Mike... Give it up.

"A common assumption among more alarmist and less informed commentators is that recent softness in the Vancouver market is the beginning of a huge drop in prices... Thankfully the data is proving these theories wrong."

Where exactly are these data? Why didn't you mention them?

Here's some data for you. The benchmark price of a single family home in Vancouver west dropped by more than $30,000 last month alone.

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/201211-REBGV-Stats-Package.pdf

So. Q- Is the word "crashing" appropriate?

A - Who cares?

Better Q - Will buyers get a better deal by waiting?

A - Almost certainly.

 

It's not the highly leveraged

It's not the highly leveraged that will lead the market down, it's the longtime owners with a lot of equity--- see Richmond single family homes. They want to sell, and can sell, unfortunatly, it is the highly leveraged owners who bought within the last four years that CAN'T sell because there are no buyers that are willing (or able) to pay the prices they did. 

 

"Doom and gloom"

Mr. Stewart has it wrong. It is not "doom and gloom' for home prices to come down making them more affordable for average Vancouver families. That is a good thing. 

It's "doom and gloom" to believe (or hope, as it seems to be the case for Mr. Stewart), that they won't. 

Prices will do what they will do; the future will reveal the truth. But, to think that prices coming down is a bad thing is perverse.

Mr. Stewart is the "doom and gloomer"

Doomer and gloomer?

Predicting a price drop != predicting doom and gloom.  It's all a matter of perspectives.  From the perspective who wants to own but can't due to the high prices, your bullish stance is just as well be predicting doom and gloom for them.  Of course, you bulls will then put out some lame excuses saying the non-owners are losers / slackers, etc.

Btw, what didn't you at least put out some the REBGV stats in your article?  If you annualize the monthly drop, the price drop isn't that trivial.


BBtw, BC unemployment has increased 1% since April 2012 while the rest of Canada number remains stable.  Why is that?

low interest rate = higher home prices?

At what price does low interest rate no longer support a bullish sentiment?  I say there's a limit of how high prices can go due to low interest rate, and we are passed that.

Born yesterday?

Sellers pulling their listings in November?  Oh the humanity!

Meanwhile back in the henhouse

The fox assured the farmer that although there were fewer chickens in the henhouse, there was nothing to worry about as he was watching them closely.

How would we expect a Realtor to comment on his market?  Of course it's all rosy even though sales have plummeted month after month for the past 6 months and are well below the 10 year average.  Listings are up, sales are down.  I have personally seen some listings go down in price over 30% and still are not selling.

Obviously there are some who don't have to sell and are just testing the market and have the luxury of pulling them off the market.  They will undoubtably relist and when they do it will be for LESS.  

There are many who HAVE to sell like those that lose their jobs, get divorced have to relocate, etc.  They are the ones that will have to sell and take the lower prices which will affect the market VALUE of all properties because they create a new benchmark for the area / size of home et

There are always people that HAVE to sell and the realtor should be happy for that because that's why he has a job in the first place.

The reality is Vancouver does not have a lot of high paying jobs compared to other markets with much lower RE prices.  BC's median household income is lower than AB or ON and RE prices are not in line.  That is a reality that will eventualy bring RE prices back in line and has been proven throughout history the world over.

Oh yeah, but Vancouver is different righ? 

Thanks for this article

Thanks for this article Mike.

Now it will be on record for all to see in the coming years.

PS. thanks for explaining the word equity.

 

All I can say is....

All I can say is that my next door neighbour sold his house for $780,000. He had lived in the basement after his divorce and rented the upstairs which certainly covered his mortgage.  The family that bought the house had tradesmen working on it for 4 months and I am guessing they threw another 120,000 at the property. It looks good now.

Another house on my block was sold 6 months ago for less than that, and was raized.  A brand new home was built and was on the market 2 months at 1.5 million. It sold last week.

2 other people on my block have approached me about selling ( unsolicited interest ).  One was the guy next door who has a 'friend' interested in my house and the other works for a builder /renovator.  

It depends what your property is and who might want to live in your neighbourhood, but at these interest rates, there are people coming to Vancouver who have money and need to buy a place to live.

A LOT of people are hoping that things collapse rather than have to work to pay off a mortgage.  They better have cash because if things collapse, there will be a reason. ie.. UNEMPLOYMENT.

 

 

I expected better from

I expected better from Vancouver Observer. This is just another advertorial. How about some of that "investigative reporting" you claim to be publishing?

More shameless pumping of the

More shameless pumping of the real estate market !!!

Those who expect Vancouver (and surrounding areas) to fall back over time to 'average' Canadian multiples of income etc are forgetting one key thing.  The environments of the other areas of Canada.  Vancouver is the most liveable city in Canada and that attracts a premuim.  Unemployment or not, high paying jobs or not, those who think that they have as big an impact on house prices as they would in Winnipeg or even Toronto are ignoring two words; Global & Immigration.  We don't exist in a vacuum and you will find that house prices here will fall to a level that is fair in a global market not in a local or even national market.  Heads up everyone, stop knocking the Yanks for not thinking outside of their borders when so many Canadians think that the world ends at the oceans.  High house prices are here to stay. They may fall a little but no major crash is going to happen (unless everyone gets divorced at once).

Touched a Nerve?

Hi All,

Wow! Looks as though the article touched a nerve...

Like I said in the article, the Vancouver real estate market is not crashing.

We have seen a softening of demand after an extended period of high demand.

We are not seeing a credit crunch, we are not seeing rapidly rising unemployment, we are not seeing interest rates rising in the near term. (if you disagree with the above paragraph, I look forward to your evidence)

Buyers have the ability to buy, but many feel that if they wait they can get a better deal.

Sellers who don't want to sell in today's softer market are pulling their properties off the market.

These sellers are doing this because they can.

These sellers are not losing their jobs and interest rates are not rapidly increasing put cash flow pressure on them to sell.

Sellers in Vancouver are not panicked or pressurized.

In a crash situation like in the US, Sellers were forced to continue to market their properties due to losing their jobs and their ARM's (Adjustable Rate Mortgages - Illegal in Canada) were re-adjusting at exhorbitant rates increasing cash flow pressure.

If these Sellers didn't sell their properties, their lenders would do so for them once foreclosure had occured.

Sellers in the US during the crash were pressurized and clearly had no choice.

This is not happening in Vancouver.

In the US crash, buyers could not buy because they could not get financing and unemployment was rising.

In today's Vancouver real estate market interest rates are at all time lows and Vancouver's economy is performing well.

Where is the panic, Where are the job losses, Where are the foreclosures? Where are are the stories of developers and other real estate businesses failing?

 

Richmond single family home

I have been trying to unload a three bedroom townhouse in Richmond for six months. I have no mortgage. While we had a steady stream of people looking - not one offer. There are aboiut half a dozen simialr houses in the same complex of around 100 - and none of those have sold either. The strata rules forbid rentals - which might solve my problem. And the price was always negotiable - just no-one wanted to start negotiating. Of course I took it off the market! 

This is not USA, and suprise, it doesn't have to be!

mikestewartrealtor wrote:

 

We are not seeing a credit crunch, we are not seeing rapidly rising unemployment, we are not seeing interest rates rising in the near term. (if you disagree with the above paragraph, I look forward to your evidence)...

...Where is the panic, Where are the job losses, Where are the foreclosures? Where are are the stories of developers and other real estate businesses failing?

 

 

All those things happened in the USA AFTER the bubble popped.  They were not the cause, but rather the outcome, the cause was easy money and greed.


Also, why do you have to look at the US as the perfect model and match that exactly for a crash to happen?

There are differences in each countries crash scenario, but there are far more similarities.  Debt, easy money, psychology, fear, greed, etc

if you are looking for US similarities...

...50% of Canada's $1 Trillion in mortgages is considered high risk.  Whether CMHC is healthy or not, the loans are guaranteed by the govt., and ultimately the taxpayers will pay for it.  The ripples will be felt in education, healthcare, R&D, etc. as the govt switches to austerity after losing its shirt.  Let's leave the rest of this scenario to your imagination, or please refer to those bears at the FP.  In any case, if you are so sure that Vancouver defies gravity and are confident in contradicting the Bank of Canada, the Financial Post, Paul Krugman and Robert Shiller, then you deserve to suffer with the other delusionals, but please stop embarassing yourself, it is distracting.

"Crash"

Mike's straw man is too obvious, goes like this:

"If the market doesn't crash within a year, it's a 'soft" spot."

 

A crash can take 5 years, and it will. When prices are down 40%, we can all look back and laugh heartily at this piece of propaganda by a realtor.

Re: "Crash"

Mick wrote:

Mike's straw man is too obvious, goes like this:

"If the market doesn't crash within a year, it's a 'soft" spot."

 

A crash can take 5 years, and it will. When prices are down 40%, we can all look back and laugh heartily at this piece of propaganda by a realtor.

Actually, prices down by 40% would only take us back to prices of 5 years ago that were already considered inflated.  If compared to the spectacular RE crashes of the US, Ireland, Spain, or Japan, 40% would still be frighteningly conservative.

Vancouver Real estate

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High School Droputs

Thanks for thei information Mike. Nothing like a uneducated high school dropout discussing economics.

 

Nice equity equation by the way. I bet you felt smart letting us know how to calcuate equity!

 

 

Missed my point?

Hi All,

Maybe you have missed my point.

To reiterate - The market is not crashing right now.

Do any of you disagree?

If so, on what basis?

I would love to see your data that shows a crash is occuring.

Some nice charts or other data from a reputable source would be great.


To set the record straight - I have a bachelors degree in Political Science from SFU.

 

 

Whats the point? :)

Actually your point was

 

mikestewartrealtor wrote:

A common assumption among more alarmist and less informed commentators is that recent softness in the Vancouver market is the beginning of a huge drop in prices.....

 

 

Not

 

mikestewartrealtor wrote:

 

To reiterate - The market is not crashing right now.

 

Trick question for Mike

mikestewartrealtor wrote:

 

These sellers are not losing their jobs and interest rates are not rapidly increasing put cash flow pressure on them to sell.

 

Mike, A trick question: which is it you are hoping for?

A) a strengthening US economy that supports Canadian employment

B) a weakening US economy with subsequent rising unemployment in Canada but continuing low interest rates

C) strong US economy and continuing low interest rates because Canada is different

If this isnt a beginning of a crash, what is?

Detached

November 12 – $1,053,902

November 11 – $1,134,936

November 10 – $1,043,348

 

Attached

November 12 – $545,658

November 11 – $565,168

November 10 – $539,429


Apartment

November 12 – $428,825

November 11 – $431,808

November 10 – $416,702

So all three categories are showing year over year declines, approaching 2010 numbers.

The numbers are more dire if you consider that they have fallen a higher percent since the peak earlier this year, and the decreases are trending higher not lower.

A 1-3% monthly decline may not be much, but annualize that and it can be a big number. 

Mike, what would you qualify as a crash?  Even the american bubble took years to play out, I do not expect the crash to play out in a couple months.  It will take years but there is no avoiding it, no soft landing.


Local real estate market "crash" or "softening"

Sorry Mike, I disagree with you its not a softening of the market its a "crash' I don't have the charts and data readily available but I know where you can obtain it, check out the website vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/. There is enough information on that website to convince even the hardiest skeptic that the big one has arrived, it means some really challenging times ahead for the real estate market. I'm glad that I don't have too much equity at risk here. On the positive side, it will give a chance to people priced out of the market to buy in at lower prices.

No wonder you became a

No wonder you became a realtor. A Political Science Degree and you are making comments about economics? Talk about a waste of four years.

 

Prices are dropping, all you uneducated agents know it, that is why you are trying  your best to convince the publlic otherwise.

 

We do not need to show you stats. You see the empty open houses. Wait till the spring market hits when all the houses that were "pulled off the marker" return. Then you will see a major crash.

 

It is is simple ecomics. 70% of people are now homeowners, There are very few buyers left. The feds have murdered 30 year mortgages as they should have, and no more CMHC on houses over a million.

 

IMy parents own a home on the westide they bought for $100,000. They could care less if they sold it for 1.2 million or 1.1 million. But for that moron that bought that same house for 1.5 million and is trying to unload on our street for 1.6 million. Guess what, my parents selling at 1.2 just caused a $400,000 to that seller, while realizing over a million dollar profit themselves.

 

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

As for you asking for

As for you asking for stats,

 

The real estate board controls ther stats. Why would  you provide that information to us showing a housing bust. 

 Instead what you slezzeballs did was create the home price index to smooth over price drops. It may trick the uneductated, but for those of us understand stats, we all know that the home price index is load of crap. Nice smoothed out graph by the way!

 

Read below

http://www.mymultiplesclerosis.co.uk/history/plunder-tulips.html

 

Just replace tulips with housing and there is your answer...

During the meal, Hendrik Jan

During the meal, Hendrik Jan Wynants suggested to Geertruyt Schoudt that she should buy a pound of tulip bulbs from him for 1,400 florins about the price of a house. Geertruyt was reluctant, but she was tempted.

All round Europe, the Dutch were famous for their love of gambling, and tulips seemed a sure bet. Prices were rising every day. Tulip sales usually happened in the back rooms of taverns, like the golden grape in Haarlem. Each round of selling began with a round of wine, paid for by the seller. Many buyers didn't have the money to pay for the bulbs. They just gave one another IOUs. And the more they drank, the faster the prices rose.

This was the world's first great speculative bubble. A pound of tulips were no changing hands for the price of a house, a farm, a pair of ships. These people might look sane, but they were in the grip of a disorder of the brain. They had caught "tulip mania".

Geertruyt was still hesitating until another guest, Jacob de Block, offered to be the guarantor for eight days while she got the money together.

Finally, with this no-risk arrangement in place… Then another guest offered Geertruyt 100 florins profit on the spot if she'd sell the bulbs straight to him. But her backer, Jacob de Block, and his wife, convinced to hold onto the bulbs. They knew that if she didn't pay them back in time, the tulips would be, theirs for an eight-day-old price. And with the price of tulips now rising by the hour… the de Blocks could make quite a profit.

Witte Croonen, White Crown BulbsWitte Croonen, White Crown Bulbs

Two days later, bulb prices were still rocketing. The money and wine were flowing as ever… Until the auctioneer try to sell a pound of Witte Croonen, white crown bulbs, for the going rate of 1,250 florins.

Then something mysterious happened – there were no buyers. He tried 1,200 florins. 1,150? 1,100. 1,000 florins? The fever had broken. The patient had woken up. Few people ever wanted all of those bulbs – they were only buying them to sell them on again. And so, the minute that confidence slipped, that that great drunkenness of optimism was over, everybody was desperately trying to get rid of them. Sell! Sell! Sell! That's what happens in all of the speculative bubbles, whether it's the Wall Street crash or the dot.com bubble – they all end the same way… pop!

The tulip market had collapsed in just four days. The Wynants family soon called in a lawyer. They are all giving their versions of who'd promised what during that Sunday lunch. Jacob de Block and his wife reneged on their offer to help Geertruyt. She was left holding the bulbs. It's not known if she ever saw them bloom.

But tulip mania didn't destroy the Dutch system – the stock exchange and the companies and the trading and a willingness to speculate. We call it capitalism.

And it's lasted for longer than the European empires and it's been worth infinitely more than all the gold and silver that Europe plundered.

It started here. And the tulips? Well, the Dutch turned them into an export trade, which they dominate to this day.

In less than a century and a half Europeans had gone from piracy to private enterprise. They'd rebelled against a church… Dominated world trade… And some had grown rich.

Vancouver listings

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homes for sale Vancouver bc

the real estate is continuously decreasing

 

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House for sale in Vancouver

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Panic Stations!

We have been living in our home in Vancouver for 25 years.  When prices started to hit the stratosphere in Spring 2011 like verybody else we sat up and took notice.  In selected upper end properties there can be little doubt the pop was from foreign buyers, mostly from China.

Now prices have softened and the Chinese buyers have mostly stopped buying.  But they will be back.  Vancouver is quite simply too attractive, comfortable and liveable not to appeal to wealthy Chinese with money to spend and wishing to hold some assets outside of China.  In neighbourhoods like Shaughnessy, False Creek, and Yaletown some of these globetrotting new millionaires and billionaires use their Vancouver homes like many Canadians use summer cottages.

Local buyers have been squeezed and frightened by what look to be top-heavy prices set for a collapse.

The market is clearly unbalanced at present.  Show a house, have a good deal of interest, very few offers, and the offers subject to the buyer's sale of their existing home are often expiring because there is so little liquidity at present.

Prices are down from the peak, but the peak is not a fair assessment of value, it represented a set of circumstances in part created by signals from Chinese leaders they were going to clamp down on foreign real estate investments to stem the flow of private capital from China.

The market is slow, slow, and part of the problem is the numbers and swings are now so high in terms of timing and pricing they eclipse normal household financial decisions - hundereds of thousands of dollars potentially in play.  Yet most Vancouverites are indeed sitting on piles of equity.

Give it time, the market will rebalance, likely at prices that are down 20% or so from peak prices that only a very small lucky few saw - the dream of fat premiums is now gone.  The reality is far from dark - if you are upsizing, softer prices are great news, if you are downsizing the drop in the equity you are withdrawing is in part softened by the drop in your downsized home.

What we don't need is a mexican standoff between buyers and sellers like we have now.  Hopefully volumes will start to improve in the Spring, at moderately softer prices, and the market will come into balance again.

Given the global situation and the probable continued production of wealthy Pacific Rim families looking for a Vancouver property ... the future remains very bright for Vancouver real estate as an investment, not so great for local income or wage earners hoping to own a traditional family home.  Can you say "commute" kiddies?

 

Uninformed commentary by realtor

Corrections do not always result from downturns in the economy, or changes in interest rates, etc. Their root cause is an imbalance between prices and underlying economic fundamentals.

The reasons real estate in Vancouver is due for a correction are due:

- Salaries in Vancouver do not support prices 

- Renting is vastly cheaper than buying (a classic sign of a bubble)

- Small changes in mortgage lending standards seem to have had large effects on buying activity, suggesting that current market conditions are dependent on lending rules, interest rates, etc. and vulnerable to changes in those variables

- A buyer/seller stalemate is a classic "tell" of a coming correction, leading many observers to conclude a "soft" landing is coming. If you go back to the beginning of the various market corrections, you will see that this standoff is typically phase I of a major drop in real-estate prices, as buyers are not yet ready to adjust their prices downward, while sellers understandably feel they're in a strong position and are unwilling to pay "marked" prices.

See one example of an 2007 article from Time on a "softening" market. Notice how the language here echoes much of the current media coverage: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1223356,00.html.

apartmenst for sale in Vancouver

thanks for the article mike

this is really very helpfull share

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Vancouver property

I am not an expert on Vancouver property market.  Just bought a new apartment in Vancouver in October and really like the view and facilities.  Also looking at high end town house for a possible trade-up or as a second home. Canadian property is not a favorite of "hot money" due to its stringent control.  Most people buying here are aware of the medium to long term nature. 

 

MacLean's magazine

It's mainstream now.

"The great 2013 real estate crash"

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!@This and all realtors who will be in the bankruptcy/welfare line in 2013.

 

And no, I'm not a broker renter. I'm one who saw the writing on the wall, sold my 1.2m home in North Burnaby, downsized to a new townhouse in Wine country, Okanagan after their collapse years ago. So, I actually did what you're supposed to do. Sell high and buy low.

 

 

The fact that Vancouver's

The fact that Vancouver's real  estate market is not at its best shape today is undeniable fact. But I really think that is not going to crush any time soon. As far as I have heard peoppel are starting to show more and more interest in applying for mortgages, meaning that their financial situation got more or less stable, which is definitely good. But yes, I do agree that the economy is too weak and pretty difficult to make any judgements at this point. Don't worry, we are going to see how things will go very soon.

Erika from: pay day loans online from PaydayLoans@ Company

Just take a look around your city

Why is it that every article denying the Vancouver housing bubble is written by a realtor?

How many people do you know that can afford a detached home right now? I can't think of a single person that lives and works in the lower mainland that can afford one. On my street in Burnaby, there are more vacant houses than occupied ones. Any change in the Chinese buyers' habits will send this market into a freefall. And yes, the overseas money is the main thing pushing up the prices. If you compare rent vs. own prices to most other cities in North America, you'll see that Vancouver is way off in this regard. Why is it that rent has barely changed, but the buying prices have skyrocketed? Because the city would be a ghost town if the rent goes up. 

If Vancouver isn't facing a crash, who will continue to pay these outrageous prices? Even with a 5-10% drop, the majority of this city won't be able to own. I suppose we could knock down every dettached house and just build condos instead.

I used to live in Vancouver and after 5 years of trying to figure out how to get out of renting, my wife and I moved to Edmonton. We now live in a two story home, in a mature neighborhood, with tree lined streets and I can walk to work! It was the best decision we could have made and have no regrets making it. Though we loved Vancouver, almost all of our expendable income would have gone to housing, making us virtual paupers - even though we both are working professionals with advanced degrees. The brain drain is real! Is Vancouver going to be the next Venice? A beautiful place that everyone visits with the help of quick loans and where no-one lives?

I live in Irvine, CA.   Zip code 92603.  Area code 949.  The weatehr outside today is in the upper 60s (cold for us).  We have beautiful hiking trails (amazing views of Catalina Island) within a mile of our home.

We've lived in our house for 26 years.  We remodeled and today it's 2700 sq feet, 5b, 3ba.  I figure I can sell it for $900K USD.

It wasl likely worth $1.5 at the peak... but to us it's sort of paper money, except that with the things are with Obama, I've been thinking of moving to Vancouver... we have lots of family in Seattle but I prefer Vancouver.

So, imagine my shock when I saw your house prices.

I laugh when you tell me about your "good weather" and the Chinese...

Listen, we have lots of Chinese in Irvine.  FOB with lots of money and they buy houses here too.

So, when you folks say that you are "not in a bubble", that "Vancouver is different", that "Our weather is mild and the Chinese love it"...

Listen up... YOU ARE IN A BUBBLE.

In the meantime, I will keep visiting your beautiful City.  I love staying downtown, smoking cuban cigars and taking the wife shopping to Robson St.  Love that "Roots" stuff.

But, seriously, I've been there, I've done that. In the belly of the beast down here.  Your prices will drop 40% in three years.. maybe more.

Good luck.

Vancouver Real Estate Market is Fraud

Here is nice video about Real estate bubble in Vancouver http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIp1HFZDh8Y

Hi Guys,


I am glad to see my article has generated as much conversation as it has.


I'd also like to point out that we still do not have the crash that many have been predicting.

Please see the most recent stats:

http://www.mikestewart.ca/january-2013-real-estate-board-of-greater-vanc...

What?

The January stats are not good, I do not know what you define as a crash that people are saying, but obviously it will not happen in one month.  Only crazy doomers are saying 40-50% in a month.


Even at a 1-2% decline per month, annulaized that is 10-20%.  That is pretty bad to me.  Remember last year when economists forecasts were all positive, what a difference a year makes.

Vancouver Price Drops from Peak

Aside from Miami, Vancouver is dropping in price faster than any of the US citiies did.

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/drop-from-peak-chart-...

Good to see Mike still

Good to see Mike still psoting stats provided be the real estate boards.

 

rememebr Mike, it is diferent here. Just Like San Fran, Miami, Phoniex, etc. Thosed cities are much nicer places to live then rain soaked cold Vancouver.

Mantra

As a former American living in Vancouver, i'm quite familiar with this mantra. Ahem:

 

OH MY GOD BUY REAL ESTATE BUY STUFF BUY BUY BUY IT'S A GREAT TIME TO BUY WHY AREN'T YOU BUYING BUY NOW BUY OFTEN BUY EARLY ARE YA BUYING YET OH MY GAWD YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS OUT LIMITED TIME OFFER BUY BUY BUY BUY

 

Seriously, get a grip man. I remember when prices were skyrocketing in the US. If the real estate wasn't overvalued one month, it would be the next month. You can only have prices increase +5% a month for so long; at that rate nobody knows when prices have overshot economic fundamentals. Yea yea, Vancouver is the most livable city in Canada. I know guys in California who had waterfront property in Hermosa Beach, Los Angeles. Being on the beach didn't stop them from losing upwards of $4 million of equity.