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Climate “catastrophe” of 6C dead ahead: IEA

Barry Saxifrage
Dec 2nd, 2011

“The world is perfectly on track for a six-degree Celsius increase in temperature. Everybody, even the schoolchildren, knows this is a catastrophe for all of us.”

That is the brutally blunt message about where we are currently headed by 2100, according to the world’s most authoritative source on energy markets -- the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook report.

We are already experiencing a dramatic increase in extreme weather with just 0.8 C warming so far. The nations of the world have agreed never to hit 2 C, because it is too dangerous. Hitting 6 C is just unimaginable. Put simply, if we keep expanding fossil fuel infrastructure, we will quickly lose control of a rapidly destabilizing climate system.

Big oil's aggressive plan to run more pipelines through Super Natural B.C.

Barry Saxifrage
Nov 30th, 2011

This is the second part of a two part series. The first part explored the dramatic decline in American oil imports and why they won’t absorb much more of the tar sands expanding flows. Today’s second part explains just what that means for Vancouver and BC as a proposed string of gigantic tar sands pipelines target our coast.

Lots and lots of new tar sands pipelines

Let’s be clear about one thing: Big Tar is planning to build lots of new pipelines. Keystone XL was just one of many. The tar sands industry says they plan to increase their production by 4.5 million barrels per day in the next 25 years. Here is how many pipes they will need to move that extra oil:

As Americans max out on tar sands, more pipelines head for Vancouver and B.C.

Barry Saxifrage
Nov 29th, 2011

 Americans are in deep trouble and their years of absorbing the tar sands growing production are over. This is a two part series. In today’s first part we explore the dramatic decline in American oil imports that set the stage for the Keytsone XL pipeline protests and delay. Tomorrow’s second part will explain just what that means for Vancouver and BC as a proposed string of gigantic tar sands pipelines heads for our coast.


The happy storyline running for years now in Canada is that Americans benefit from buying more tar sands oil: Americans need more oil, and reliable Canada has lots to sell. Big Tar has been ramping up carbon extraction for years, and Americans have been sucking it all up. America’s Big Gulp has allowed the Alberta tar sands to rapidly expand without really bothering the rest of us Canadians with their mess. But not anymore.

Three dramatic things have shifted for Americans.

Vancouver Sun's ethical oil orgy

Barry Saxifrage
Nov 14th, 2011

Each month I read a hundred climate articles and the summaries of a thousand more. So I see a lot of biased climate reporting. Even so, a recent Vancouver Sun business article by Barbara Yaffe was such a one-sided oil orgy that it shocked even me.

In honour of such truly dreadful climate reporting, I’m going to first provide some balance on the blatant biases and then give it my inaugural “Oil Orgy” award. We deserve all the hell and high water we get if we allow pro-pollution, industry-spin articles like Yaffe’s to slip by unchallenged.

In a nutshell

Yaffe appears to copy talking points directly from Big Tar’s advertising and presents those as the full, balanced, did-my-homework story of oilsands pollution. She then goes on to insist we allow Big Tar to radically expand carbon pollution because the oilsands are:

Tar sands CEO convicted of ecocide in prestigious UK test trial. Is Harper next?

Barry Saxifrage
Nov 4th, 2011

What started as a miserable, terrible, horrible month for “ethical [sic] oil”, multi-nationals turned downright menacing on September 30 in a London courtroom.

The UK Supreme Court was the setting for a test trial featuring real judges, top lawyers and a by-the-book public jury. A fictional tar sands CEO, backed by a legal team, defended himself against a proposed UN law punishing “ecocide.” This high-profile exercise was the first real-world test of who would face jail time should ecocide be added to genocidecrimes against humanitycrimes of aggression and war crimes as the fifth UN crime against peace. Quite the list, eh?

As the jury filtered back in, the question hovering in the air was whether the people now leading the push to tear open Canadian boreal forests and unleash the gigantic “carbon bomb” of the tar sands would be found guilty of ecocide? Would their future corner office come with bars?  

As the Guardian newspaper reports:

Real lawyers, judges and a public jury found the CEOs of fictional fossil fuel companies guilty … as a result of their company's extraction of oil from tar sands in Canada.

Polly Higgins, the driving force behind the trial and who is working to have ecocide join genocide and three other crimes against peace in the UN, said: "For me the trial was a moment of truth. No longer is it acceptable to pursue profit without consequence. … Surely it is now the time to prosecute the true destroyers of our world."

She added: "I'm not keen to see lots of [people] in the dock. What I want to see is people making responsible decisions… [in which] the ethical imperative trumps the economic imperative"

Doesn’t sound like the “ethical oil” branding is working too well across the pond. Note to tar sand CEOs: you might want to double down on the marketing and lobbying budget, pronto.

Gettting 86’d

Just how likely is it that “ecocide” will be added as a UN crime? The Guardian article continues:

…ecocide could become an international crime by amendment of the [International Criminal Court] ICC's Statute of Rome, which would need 86 nations to back it. Are there 86 states backing the ICC who feel climate change, the crisis in the oceans and other environmental problems are trashing their "peaceful enjoyment" of the Earth's bounty? I wouldn't be surprised if there were.

In an interesting coincidence, the climate-destabilizing pollution coming out of the Alberta tar sands is now more than from the economies of -- you guessed it -- 86 nations. Combined.  Here they are:

Amazingly, being more climate damaging than 86 nations just isn’t enough for tar sand CEOs. They want even more. Lots more. Much faster.

As the inset chart above shows, they are pulling out all the stops to try to“more than double” tar sands annual climate pollution in just the next ten years. Heck, the government of Alberta even brags about it. And well they should. It takes a lot of moxie to ramp up climate pollution at that scale – technically, financially, ethically, legally and socially. Oh, and add “staying out of jail” to that list.

At the level they are gunning for  – 3.2 million barrels a day – the tar sands will produce 600 million tonnes of carbon pollution a year by 2019. That is 18 tonnes of CO2 a year per Canadian. Or 166 tonnes a year per Albertan. Talk about a world record climate obesity problem. Wow. Ick. Sounds like it might be time to stop the “ethical binging”.  

But like an alcoholic reaching for a jug of rock gut, the Big Tar CEOs have no intention of stopping there. They are shooting for 700 million tonnes of climate pollution just six years later...and over a billion tonnes of climate destabilzing emission by 2035. Must. Have. More.

In a world that is quickly realizing that Big Misery comes from Big Carbon you would think the tar sands “carbon bombers” would be a tad less reckless, aggressive and extreme in their undertakings. Seriously, when just a few individuals are directly responsible for deciding to create and market a billion tonnes of climate pollution per year, I’d say there are some heavy liability issues for them if that pollution causes problems.

But for now those few CEOs have decided it is pedal to the metal, come hell or high water. Which leaves us with the question of just how much more hell and high water will it take before 86 nations to vote for protection from ecocide?

A miserable, terrible, horrible month

If the last month is anything to go by, it won’t be very long.

  • European ban
    Alberta tar sands took another major international hit as “too dirty to burn” when the European Commission gave a critical  thumbs up in support of Europe’s policy to ban tar sand oil from their continent. Their science shows our tar sands causing 22 per cent more climate damage per litre than conventional oil. Recent polling shows Europeans becoming increasingly concerned about our destabilized climate. More citizens feel threatened by climate pollution than the financial crisis, with 20 per cent ranking the climate threat as their single biggest concern.
  • Game over. We all lose.
    The top climate scientist in the US, James Hansen of NASA, says that fully exploiting the tar sands means “game over” for our climate and that any government that allows infrastructure to be built to expand tar sands pollution “either they don't ‘get it’ or they simply do not care about the future of young people.” Note to CEOs: I don’t think you will want climate scientists for witnesses.
  • “Catastrophic economic costs”
    The Canadian government’s own National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, released a first of its kind study, “Paying the Price”, that says Canadians risk  “catastrophic economic costs” if global temperatures rise more than 2C…something climate scientists say is all but certain if tar sands are fully exploited as the Big Tar CEOs are pushing for. Did they say “catastrophic”?
  • Insurance companies won’t pay
    The Virginia Supreme Court recently ruled that an insurance company was not obligated to pay either the legal costs or damage awards for an insured client corporation that was being sued for massive climate pollution. Turns out that in Virginia at least, emitting climate pollution is not an “accident.” No “oops” defence. Oops. Does it remind you of the early days of tobacco litigation? Instead fossil foolish shareholders will have to pay out of their own profits for any and all climate law suits. Not that anyone would ever want to sue the tar sands companies for damages…from ecocide, say. I’m sure the awards will be small. Like with the tobacco companies. Only more so.
  • Hundreds arrested
    Hundreds of people have been arrested in both the USA and Canada protesting the expansion of tar sands pollution.  Organizer, Bill McKibben,told the Guardian:

“This summer, we had 1,200 people from all 50 states. They weren't radicals in any sense. Not in the sense that oil companies are radicals, whereby they are altering the composition of the atmosphere, just about the most radical action you can imagine.”

One 86-year-old arrestee wore a sign saying “World War II Vet, Handle With Care”.

  • “Disjointed, confused”
    The Canadian government’s own commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development revealed that Stephen Harper’s government’s climate change plans are “disjointed, confused, non transparent” and that their environmental monitoring of the tar sands is deficient and missing.
  • Caught hiding the dirt
    Emails released under an access to information request shows that Stephen Harper’s Environment Canada intentionally left tar sands statistics out of its required annual climate pollution report. Maybe that is because the stats showed climate pollution from our tar sands has tripled since 1990. Even more damaging, the missing data revealed that our tar sands were no longer reducing emissions per barrel. When one of the few remaining tar sands marketing points is that they are getting “cleaner” per barrel, it is a nasty blow for the government to say differently. So the Harper government hid it.
  • Nobel Peace Prize winners say “halt”
    The Dalai Lama and Archbishop Tutu along with seven other Nobel Peace Prize winners recently called on our Prime Minister “to use your power to halt the expansion of the tar sands. Further exploitation of the tar sands will … make turning the clock back on climate change impossible.” They specifically said that curbing climate pollution is a “profoundly moral decision, one that deserves to be placed alongside any other major struggle in human history.”  
  • US tar sand pipeline protests won’t go away
    Tar sand pollution opponents call our “ethical oil” the biggest “carbon bomb” on the continent. What’s up with that? They are now shadowing President Obama, staging protests at every single public appearance he’s made since Labour Day weekend to get him to say no to Keystone XL. Major media, like the New York Times, have come out against the controversial tar sands pipeline. More than 20 US lawmakers have called the review process tainted by conflicts of interest and want it re-done. Even in the conservative red-state of Nebraska, the wildly popular college football team shut down tar sands ads in their stadium after half the stadium stood and booed them.  Ouch.

With a product as dirty, dangerous and metastasizing as the tar sands – and with the laws of physics running against them -- the CEOs responsible for cranking open the “ethical pollution” spigots just might find themselves eligible for special retirement status after all.

But what about our politicians, like Stephen Harper and Ed Stelmach?

Extreme rain rips apart historic Cinque Terre: "Monterosso no longer exists"

Barry Saxifrage
Oct 31st, 2011

Vancouverites have a lot of experience with rain. Too much, many of us might say.

The most miserable of all are those days when the sky just opens and water dumps down faster than street drains can keep up. Just last week I was wading across Cambie “Stream” with my umbrella guttering water. Nearly 11 mm of rain fell in that day, the most so far this month.

Environment Canada says our greatest single day rainfall in the last eighty years was Christmas Day 1972 when 89 mm (3.5 inches) dumped on Vancouver. That is a lot of rain.

If Oprah Winfrey is willing to plug "Ethical Oil", why stop with the tar sands?

Barry Saxifrage
Oct 6th, 2011

Canada is trying to hit one out of the ballpark with a brazen attempt to re-brand some of the world’s dirtiest and most dangerous oil as “ethical”. They've even got Oprah Winfrey's Network to feature their ads.   If we pull it off, there's no reason to stop there. If  an “ethical” brand make-over can make our tar sands smell sweet, just imagine how many other profitable, but deadly, industries it can pry open for us.

Ethical Oil

Talk about an image problem!

The Alberta tar sands are widely feared. Hundreds of people have been arrested in both the USA and Canada protesting the expansion of our tar sands. Europe and California are working to ban them. Climate activists have called the climate pollution from our tar sands the biggest “carbon bomb” on the continent.

NASA: it rained so hard the oceans fell

Barry Saxifrage
Sep 27th, 2011

“The year 2010 was one the worst years in world history for high-impact floods. But just three weeks into the new year, 2011 has already had an entire year's worth of mega-floods. “ -- Meteorologist Jeff Masters

I spend hours a day researching what New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman calls “global weirding”: the destabilization of our weather system fueled by the three million tonnes of fossil fuel pollution we inject into it each hour. So it is a rare day when something shocks me as much as a recent U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) report on last year’s extreme rainfall.

CO2 Smackdown: volcanoes vs fossil fuels

Barry Saxifrage
Jun 28th, 2011

Thirty one years ago the Cascade stratovolcano Mount St. Helens cataclysmically exploded. The top 1,300 feet of the mountain disappeared to be replaced by a mile wide crater. It was the “deadliest and most economically destructive volcanic event in the history of the United States”.  It also spewed ten billion kilograms of the climate warming gas CO2.

Looking at the incredibly dramatic photos of volcanoes, it easy to imagine how they could alter the weather and the climate system. And they do. Volcanoes have been one of the primary drivers of extreme weather events and even climate changes over the eons of earth’s history.

But as big and powerful as they are, when it comes to spewing CO2 and changing the climate, volcanoes are no match for humans burning fossil fuels.

In fact for volcanoes to match our fossil fuel CO2 emissions, a Mount St. Helens eruption would have to happen every two and a half hours. Who would want to live in a climate cooked by volcanic activity on that scale?

BC green economy creates more jobs than oil sands

Barry Saxifrage
Jun 23rd, 2011

Readers of our recent “Big Grab” series on the oil sands might have noticed an interesting pair of statistics concerning jobs in Canada:

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